A German far-right party leads exit polls in one state election and is roughly level in another

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured a significant victory in a state election for the first time on Sunday in eastern Germany, with projections showing they were set to either win or come in a very close second to the mainstream conservatives in another vote.

The AfD's success marks a historic moment, as projections from ARD and ZDF public television, based on exit polls and partial counts, indicated the party won 32-33% of the vote in Thuringia, outpacing the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the main national opposition party, which garnered around 24%.

In the neighboring state of Saxony, projections showed the CDU, which has governed since German reunification in 1990, leading with 31.7%, while AfD followed closely with 30.6-31.4%.

“This is the first time since 1949 that an openly right-wing extremist party has become the strongest force in a state parliament, causing deep concern and fear for many,” said Omid Nouripour, a leader of the Greens, a party in the national governing coalition.

Despite AfD's rise, other parties have refused to form a coalition with them, making the formation of new state governments complex and potentially leading to unusual coalition combinations. The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded by a prominent leftist figure, also made a strong debut, with up to 16% of the vote in Thuringia and 12% in Saxony, adding another layer of complexity.

Alice Weidel, a national co-leader of AfD, celebrated the results as a "historic success" and described it as a “requiem” for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition.

Carsten Linnemann, the CDU’s national general secretary, reaffirmed the party's commitment not to work with the far-right. “Voters in both states knew we wouldn’t form a coalition with AfD, and that stance remains unchanged,” he said.

Weidel criticized this position as “pure ignorance,” asserting that voters want AfD to be involved in government.

Support for populist parties in eastern Germany has been driven by dissatisfaction with the national government's infighting, anti-immigration sentiment, and skepticism toward Germany's military aid for Ukraine. AfD, which is strongest in the former communist east, is under surveillance by the domestic intelligence agency for its branches in Saxony and Thuringia, which are classified as “proven right-wing extremist” groups.

Chancellor Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) managed to retain representation in both state legislatures with single-digit support, but the Greens, a junior coalition partner in the outgoing state governments, were expected to lose their seats in Thuringia. The pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), another coalition partner, were also set to lose their seats in Thuringia and had no representation in Saxony.

A third state election is scheduled for September 22 in Brandenburg, another eastern state currently led by Scholz’s party. Germany’s next national election is a little over a year away.

Thuringia's political landscape is particularly challenging because the Left Party, led by outgoing governor Bodo Ramelow, has seen a significant decline, losing nearly two-thirds of its support compared to five years ago, dropping to around 12%.

Sahra Wagenknecht, a former prominent figure in the Left Party, left last year to form her own party, BSW, which has now outperformed her former party. Wagenknecht celebrated the success of her new party, emphasizing its refusal to work with AfD's leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, and expressed hope for forming "a good government" with the CDU.

The CDU has traditionally refused to work with the Left Party, which is descended from East Germany’s ruling communists, but has not ruled out collaboration with Wagenknecht’s BSW, which may be necessary to form a government without AfD in Thuringia.

AfD has capitalized on strong anti-immigration sentiment in the region. A recent knife attack in Solingen, in western Germany, allegedly carried out by a Syrian extremist and resulting in three deaths, has reignited the immigration debate, leading Scholz’s government to announce new measures to ease deportations and restrict knife ownership.

Wagenknecht’s BSW combines left-wing economic policies with an immigration-skeptic agenda. The CDU has also intensified its demands for a tougher national stance on immigration.

Germany’s approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine is another contentious issue in the east. Berlin is Ukraine’s second-largest weapons supplier after the United States, a position both AfD and BSW oppose. Wagenknecht has also criticized the German government’s decision, along with the U.S., to deploy long-range missiles to Germany starting in 2026.