B.C. Greens mull role of potential kingmaker after tight election

The British Columbia provincial election is on a razor’s edge, with the final outcome not expected for several days. As of 9 p.m. PT on Monday, the NDP had either won or were leading in 46 seats, the Conservatives in 45, and the B.C. Greens had secured two. With 47 seats required to form a majority government, the race remains too close to call.

Preliminary results indicate that 11 ridings are still undecided, with the NDP leading in six and the Conservatives in five. The full results will not be confirmed until at least October 26, when Elections B.C. begins counting around 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots. Manual recounts are scheduled between October 26 and 28 in two ridings where NDP candidates led their Conservative opponents by fewer than 100 votes after the initial count.

Given these uncertainties, the Green Party may find itself playing a decisive role in forming the next government. Some political analysts speculate that the Greens could enter a supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP, similar to the arrangement after the 2017 election, to help the New Democrats secure power.

However, both newly elected Green MLAs—Rob Botterell and Jeremy Valeriote—have expressed a desire to provide an alternative to the two main parties, complicating any potential alliance. Additionally, Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau lost her seat in this election.

"As [Furstenau] mentioned in her concession speech, and we’ve discussed since, we will continue working together to advance the Green Party’s platform," said Botterell, the new MLA for Saanich North and the Islands. Botterell, who succeeds former Green MLA Adam Olsen, said he has the full backing of both Furstenau and Olsen in his new role.

Botterell added that the Greens are waiting for the final results before discussing any potential power-sharing deals. "We’re looking forward to charting our course once we have the complete picture," he said. "In my experience, it’s best to take things one step at a time."

Valeriote, who won the West Vancouver-Sea to Sky riding, made history as the first Green MLA elected outside Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands. The seat had previously been held by the centre-right B.C. Liberals. Valeriote had initially been projected to win in 2020, but a recount handed the seat to Jordan Sturdy of the B.C. Liberals.

Reflecting on the election results, Valeriote expressed disappointment at Furstenau’s defeat in Victoria-Beacon Hill. "It’s sad and frustrating to see Sonia not elected," he said. "This outcome shows how the two-party system still limits our options—we need more diverse voices at the table."

Both Botterell and Valeriote emphasized their commitment to fostering collaboration in the legislature, with Valeriote describing the Greens’ role as acting as "the conscience" of the chamber. "Our goal isn’t to scramble for power like the others," he said. "It’s to contribute meaningfully and make a difference."

Former B.C. Green leader Andrew Weaver, who negotiated a power-sharing deal with the NDP in 2017, suggested that replicating such an agreement this time may be more difficult due to strained relations between the two parties. "There’s been four years of political sniping between Sonia and the NDP," Weaver said, adding that "Mr. Eby will need to have fresh discussions with new faces."

Weaver, who left the Greens and endorsed a Conservative candidate in his home riding, noted that Furstenau’s absence from the legislature complicates matters for the Greens. "They need their leader in the legislature," he said, suggesting that Furstenau could step down as leader or one of the newly elected MLAs could resign to allow her to contest a by-election. "It’s an issue they need to address sooner rather than later."

Sanjay Jeram, chair of undergraduate studies in political science at Simon Fraser University, also believes an alliance between the NDP and Greens would be more challenging this time around. "I don’t think Eby and Furstenau have the same potential relationship that Horgan and Weaver did," Jeram said. "If an alliance forms, it will likely be more rigid and transactional than in 2017."