'Buckle up' for a 2nd Trump presidency, former U.S. ambassador tells Canada

Kelly Craft, former U.S. ambassador to Canada under Donald Trump, advises that Canada should brace for a more challenging relationship with the U.S. if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election. With Trump's emphasis on boosting American manufacturing and urging NATO allies to increase defense spending, Craft believes Canada may need to adjust its policies to maintain favorable ties with the U.S.

"Canada, they need to buckle up. The whole world needs to buckle up because President Trump will continue his policies from 2016. We are going to make America great again and we will be bringing it back to where it was under the Trump presidency," Craft told Radio-Canada. "Just look at the first four years — that's a good gauge of what's going to be coming forward."

With the U.S. election results imminent, Canada anxiously awaits the potential impact on its billion-dollar trade relationship with its southern neighbor.

Freeland Reassures Canadians

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland sought to reassure Canadians on Monday, emphasizing the government’s readiness to work with whichever administration takes office.

"I know a lot of Canadians are anxious right now and what I want to say to them is, be reassured and have confidence, have confidence in Canada … Remember that our country is strong and that America depends on us in really significant ways," Freeland said. She also emphasized Canada’s strong ties with both major U.S. parties, saying, "We are absolutely confident we will be able to work effectively with whomever the American people elect."

A Trump victory, experts warn, could reignite trade disputes that have been largely dormant under President Joe Biden. Although there have been minor disagreements—like over softwood lumber and tax credits for American-made electric vehicles—the Canada-U.S. relationship has generally been smooth with Biden in office. Trump, however, has returned to campaign messaging about "unfair trade deals" and skepticism toward globalism, signaling a possible shift.

Laura Dawson, a Canada-U.S. relations expert and executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, notes, "A Trump victory gives Canadians pause, it gives Canadians reason for concern. We have a pretty good idea of where the Trump team will be going on issues affecting Canada and none of them are very good."

Trump's Tariff Promise

Trump has proposed a 10 percent minimum tariff on all imports, a policy that could affect Canadian businesses given the high volume of cross-border trade. "The word 'tariff' properly used is a beautiful word. One of the most beautiful words I've ever heard — it's music to my ears," Trump stated at a recent rally in Savannah, Ga., framing tariffs as a strategy to increase domestic manufacturing.

Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, pointed out that the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) should, in theory, shield Canada from new tariffs. However, she acknowledged that Trump could still move forward with such tariffs, as seen during his first term when tariffs on steel and aluminum were imposed despite NAFTA.

"We have laid the groundwork very, very well among some of Trump's biggest supporters and biggest allies, why it doesn't make sense to apply that policy to Canada," Hillman said, adding that Canada is prepared to respond with retaliatory tariffs if necessary.

Canada aims to highlight the success of the renegotiated NAFTA, which has boosted two-way trade, as part of its message to Trump should he win. However, Craft suggests Trump may seek further adjustments to the agreement, particularly around auto parts, after the U.S. lost a trade dispute with Canada and Mexico on the issue.

Trump may also renew his criticism of Canada’s supply management system, which protects Canadian dairy, egg, and poultry industries. Although Canada resisted changes to this system during previous trade talks, Trump could once again demand modifications or concessions if Canada is unwilling to adjust.

Canada Prepares for Possible Second Trump Term

In preparation for a potential Trump administration, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointed Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and International Trade Minister Mary Ng as key envoys on Canada-U.S. relations. This "Team Canada" approach involves engaging with bipartisan American officials to reinforce the importance of Canada-U.S. trade and build alliances against protectionist measures.

"This trading relationship is enormously important — it's worth $3 billion a day. Millions of Canadian and American jobs depend on it," Ng said. She underscored Canada’s commitment to defending its businesses and workers, adding, "Our defence of Canada and Canadian businesses is not going to be any different now."

Potential Policy Expectations Beyond Trade

Craft also predicts that Trump will look to Canada for greater support on the U.S. migrant crisis, especially as he plans what he calls the largest deportation effort in U.S. history, which Craft suggests could impact Canada.

Additionally, Trump is expected to push Canada to increase its military spending at a faster pace. At a recent NATO summit, Trudeau pledged that Canada would meet the two percent of GDP target by 2032, but Craft noted that Trump may insist on a quicker commitment, pointing to higher defense spending levels among other Western nations.

"We will be the best friend you've ever had if you get your house in order," Craft said.