Canada on track to be world’s 3rd-largest exporter of wheat in ’24-25 crop year

Canada on Track to Remain World’s Third-Largest Wheat Exporter

Canada is set to retain its position as the world’s third-largest wheat exporter for the second consecutive year, thanks to increasing crop production across the prairie provinces.

International data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows Canada overtaking Australia in the 2023-24 crop year, with the same ranking expected for 2024-25. Canada now trails only Russia and the European Union in wheat export volumes.

According to a recent outlook from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), production of all major field crops is expected to grow 1.8% year-over-year and surpass the five-year average by 2.4%. This forecast reflects the current harvest, which is largely complete, showing improved yields in Western Canada, where drought conditions were less severe than the previous year.

Despite drought challenges, Canada also ranked third in wheat production last year, as Australian farmers faced their own weather-related setbacks. In 2023-24, Canada shipped approximately 21.8 million tonnes of wheat to 65 countries. The top five buyers were China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and the U.S., according to AAFC.

Farm Credit Canada economist Justin Shepherd explained that while global rankings can shift annually due to localized weather conditions, Canada’s wheat exports have increased steadily over time, supported by advancements in agricultural research and crop genetics.

“We did see a much smaller wheat crop to export in 2021 due to a significant drought in the prairies that year. But overall, as long as Canada grows an average or above-average crop, exports have continued to rise,” Shepherd said.

The USDA has projected global wheat consumption to grow by 0.6% in 2024-25, driven by demand from North America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

Durum wheat—used to make pasta and primarily grown in Canada’s southern prairie provinces—is in high demand from Europe and North Africa. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, durum exports through Canada’s licensed elevator system are already about 25% higher this fall compared to the same period last year.

However, wheat remains vulnerable to water shortages, as it requires more water than crops like maize, rice, or soy. The World Resources Institute estimates that by 2040, nearly 75% of global wheat production will be at risk due to drought and climate change-induced water stress.

Despite these challenges, Canadian farmers have managed to increase yields through sustained investments in crop research and development.

“In Canada, we’ve worked hard on our wheat genetics to withstand drought stress that earlier varieties couldn’t handle,” said Stewart Oke, a central Alberta farmer and director with Alberta Grains.

“Our wheat yields and production have continued to grow, even in the face of some significant weather challenges in recent years,” Oke added.

Canadian wheat exporters are also benefiting from a lower Canadian dollar, which enhances the affordability of the country’s agricultural products on the global market.

“Not only are they getting the best wheat in the world, but buyers are able to take advantage of the exchange rate, making it even more affordable,” Oke said.

While farming is still heavily dependent on weather conditions, and no technological advancement can overcome a lack of rain, Oke emphasized that Canadian farmers are eager to maintain and build upon their success.

“Moving into that third spot is certainly a feather in Canada’s cap — especially for Western Canada,” Oke said.

“Both as producers and as an export market, we’re determined to hold on to that position.”