Canada prepares for a rise in border crossings with threat of mass deportations under Trump

Donald Trump’s pledge to start deporting undocumented immigrants as soon as he assumes office in January has organizations assisting newcomers bracing for a potential increase in arrivals across the Canadian border.

The possibility of mass deportations could drive more people to seek asylum at official entry points or attempt covert crossings into Canada, according to Jennifer Elrick, a sociology professor at McGill University specializing in immigration policy. A second Trump term, she said, could significantly affect Canada’s border policies.

A similar influx occurred after Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, with thousands crossing mainly at Roxham Road near Hemmingford, Quebec.

A more challenging journey now
Since the Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the U.S. was expanded last year, Roxham Road is no longer an unofficial entry point for asylum seekers. The updated agreement covers the entire land border, leading to fewer crossings and more asylum claims at official borders and airports.

Melissa Claisse from the Montreal-based Welcome Collective, a group formed during the 2017 surge to support asylum seekers, expressed readiness if Quebec becomes a destination again for those fleeing the U.S. Claisse also voiced concerns that the Roxham Road closure could drive people to attempt riskier crossings through remote areas.

"It’s very possible we’re going to see people in isolated regions during winter, and we’ve already seen tragic incidents in similar situations," she said.

RCMP Preparations
RCMP Sgt. Charles Poirier, stationed in Montreal, said the RCMP has been preparing for various scenarios, including the possibility of a large influx of migrants, since the U.S. election.

"We're equipped to handle both smaller groups and potential mass arrivals," Poirier stated. He added that recent southbound crossings from Canada to the U.S. could mean authorities might see more people attempting the reverse journey.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland assured Canadians that the government is focused on border security following Trump’s election, saying, "We absolutely recognize the importance of border control." In 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced criticism from opposition leaders after his #WelcomeToCanada tweet amid Trump’s immigration policies.

Election Response
In Quebec, the topic quickly became a focal point. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon speculated that millions might consider migrating north following Trump’s win, and Premier François Legault stated he would urge Trudeau to ensure strong border protections.

Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal, said he doesn’t foresee an immediate surge, noting any effect from new U.S. policies may take up to a year to materialize. Many asylum seekers currently enter through airports and then seek assistance with work permit processes, which often have long delays.

Elrick pointed out that increased border crossings without asylum claims could result in a rise in undocumented individuals in Canada. She estimated there could already be as many as 500,000 undocumented people in the country and suggested that Trump's immigration policies may prompt Canada to rethink its approach to managing undocumented migration, which has not historically been a primary focus.