For the time being, Olive Oil prices in Canada are declining
“Now, we’ve gone to a much more normal production year,” von Massow said, indicating that as supply increases, prices are expected to decrease.
After causing sticker shock for Canadian consumers, the price of olive oil is gradually decreasing, according to Statistics Canada. In July, the average price per liter was $16.68, but it fell to $16.40 in August. Over the past year, the price of olive oil saw a notable increase, rising by $3.51, or 27.23%, making it one of the most significant grocery price hikes in Canada.
Michael von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph, attributes this drop in price to improved weather conditions in the Mediterranean. After last year's significant drought, which saw Spain's olive oil production fall by over 60%, the region has experienced more normal weather patterns, leading to better crop yields.
“Now, we’ve gone to a much more normal production year,” von Massow said, indicating that as supply increases, prices are expected to decrease. He predicts that olive oil prices could drop by around $3 over the fall, although they may not return to the levels seen in August 2023, when the price was $12.89 per liter.
While the current trend is positive, von Massow warns that variability in climate conditions could lead to fluctuations in prices in the future. “We’re much more likely to see big increases and then decreases,” he said, highlighting the challenges posed by climate change, which has made predicting food supply impacts more complex due to sudden and severe weather changes.
This downward trend in olive oil prices is not unique to that product; better yields for soybean and canola are also leading to a reduction in prices for those oils. Overall, consumers may see relief in the cost of cooking oils across the board, but uncertainty remains due to the unpredictable nature of climate effects on agricultural production.
