In order to reach Ottawa's 2030 sales target, electric vehicle costs must decrease by 31%: PBO
To achieve these targets, the report indicates that the relative ownership cost of ZEVs must fall by 9 percent by 2027, 17 percent by 2028, 20 percent by 2029, and 31 percent by 2030.
To meet the federal government’s 2030 target for zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales, the relative ownership costs of electric vehicles would need to decrease by one-third, according to a report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) published on August 29.
The report estimates that, assuming current preferences, technology, and policies remain unchanged, the cost of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) would need to drop by 31 percent to meet the ZEV sales target of 60 percent by 2030.
The federal government has set incremental targets for ZEV market share: 20 percent by 2026, 60 percent by 2030, and 100 percent by 2035.
To achieve these targets, the report indicates that the relative ownership cost of ZEVs must fall by 9 percent by 2027, 17 percent by 2028, 20 percent by 2029, and 31 percent by 2030.
Automakers will receive credits under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act for selling EVs. Manufacturers exceeding annual targets can bank credits for future use or sell them to those who fall short.
They can also meet up to 10 percent of their credit requirements by investing in public fast-charging stations.
The PBO report notes that meeting the mandates may require changes in consumer preferences, new policies, price adjustments by auto manufacturers, or unexpected technological advances.
Additionally, to support the targets, the market for L2 and L3 charging ports is expected to increase by 33,900 and 4,700 units, respectively, by 2023.
Public perception remains a challenge, with 75 percent of Canadians finding EVs “too expensive,” 59 percent citing poor performance in cold weather, and 56 percent concerned about limited range on a full charge.
The Canadian government has invested over $46 billion in electric vehicle and battery manufacturing projects since 2020, including subsidies for facilities in St. Thomas and Windsor, Ont.
Additionally, the government recently announced it will impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, including cars, buses, delivery vans, and certain hybrids, effective October 1.
This move is intended to counter what Ottawa describes as China’s “unfair advantage” in the EV market and to address the issue of global oversupply undermining Western EV producers.
