Late-season Caribbean hurricane expected to hit Cuba this week

The US National Weather Service reports that a hurricane is expected to form in the Caribbean, bringing intense rainfall and mudslides to Cuba before it moves into the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.

Tropical Storm Rafael is projected to intensify into a hurricane by Monday as it approaches Jamaica, potentially bringing heavy rains to the Florida Keys and parts of the southeastern US later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami. Jamaica and Cuba could see up to 230mm (9 inches) of rain, heightening the risk of flooding.

Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for Havana and eastern provinces, including Pinar del Rio and Matanzas, as the storm could worsen the country’s existing energy crisis. Cuba has experienced extended power outages recently due to aging infrastructure and fuel shortages affecting its oil-powered stations. This comes as the island continues to recover from Hurricane Oscar, which struck its eastern region two weeks ago with winds reaching 130km/h (80mph).

Early Monday, the system remained a tropical depression, located about 310km (196 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 55km/h (35mph) and moving north at 15km/h (9mph), according to the NHC. It’s anticipated to pass near Jamaica late Monday and reach hurricane strength by the time it nears western Cuba on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Forecasts predict Rafael’s core will remain west of Florida, with atmospheric conditions likely limiting the storm from becoming life-threatening as it approaches the US Gulf Coast. Rafael is the 18th named storm of the 2024 season, which has seen above-average activity, including 10 hurricanes, with two major hurricanes—Helene and Milton—that caused significant damage in Florida and North Carolina, claiming over 200 lives.

Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State University notes that only seven hurricane seasons on record have reached 11 Atlantic hurricanes by early November. Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, author of Eye on the Tropics, adds, “It’s worth noting that only four hurricanes since 1966 have been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico in November, making a hurricane this late in the season an unusual event.”