Liberal MPs gather in B.C. to confront a new political landscape

In early July, as the Liberal caucus grappled with the unexpected byelection defeat in Toronto-St. Paul’s, Liberal caucus chair Brenda Shanahan dismissed requests for a special meeting of Liberal MPs to address the state of the party and government, citing "scheduling logistics."

Two months later, Liberal MPs will have their meeting as they gather in Nanaimo, B.C., for their annual summer caucus retreat in preparation for the fall parliamentary session.

In July, discussions within the Liberal Party centered on potential changes, and the past two months have highlighted both what has changed and what hasn’t.

Despite discussions about Justin Trudeau’s leadership following the byelection loss, he remains the prime minister. Early calls for his resignation, which seemed to gain momentum in July, ultimately subsided.

Speculation about a major cabinet shuffle also proved unfounded. In mid-July, Steven MacKinnon was moved to the labor ministry to fill Seamus O'Regan's vacancy, and Karina Gould resumed her role as House leader after maternity leave. Aside from these adjustments, the cabinet remains as it was at the start of the summer.

One new development could be Mark Carney’s involvement. The former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, who has long been a subject of interest in political circles, is expected to attend the Nanaimo retreat, though his specific role remains unconfirmed.

Another constant is the Liberal Party's position in opinion polls. On June 30, 338Canada's polling aggregator had the Liberals at 24 percent, 18 points behind the Conservative Party. Two months later, the Conservatives still lead at 42 percent, with the Liberals at 25 percent.

"I would argue that we've done a good job in government and delivered significant programs that have positively impacted Canadians' lives. However, after nine years, it's natural for people to evaluate other options," Gould said on Rosemary Barton Live this past weekend. "The challenge is that Mr. Poilievre seems reluctant to share his vision, which might not resonate with many Canadians."

Life after the Liberal-NDP pact has also changed. The confidence-and-supply agreement between the Liberals and NDP, signed in March 2022, is no longer in effect. This development will alter the Liberals' approach to the House of Commons and could affect their decision-making. While this does not necessarily signal an imminent federal election, it changes the government's weekly dynamics and could impact the political landscape on Parliament Hill.

Additionally, the Liberal campaign will now be managed by a new national director. Jeremy Broadhurst, the long-time aide and adviser to Trudeau, announced his departure shortly after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh revealed the New Democrats were withdrawing from the agreement.

"We see this as an opportunity for fresh ideas, new people, and a new approach," Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told reporters last week.

Four days after the Nanaimo meetings conclude, byelections will take place in Elmwood-Transcona, Manitoba, and LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Montreal, the latter being a Liberal stronghold now potentially at risk.

Should the Liberals lose the Montreal seat, the unease that began their summer could quickly resurface.