Russia, Iran and China eye division, violence amid U.S. election: officials

U.S. Intelligence Warns of Election Interference Efforts by Russia, Iran, and China

U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Russia, Iran, and China are working to spread divisive narratives ahead of the Nov. 5 elections, potentially stoking unrest after voting concludes. Officials also cautioned that these foreign actors may consider physical threats or violence in addition to conducting disinformation campaigns to sow uncertainty about the election.

“Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran, and China, remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system,” said an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) during a briefing. “These activities align with what these actors perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve.”

The ODNI official explained that these countries have learned from past elections and are now more prepared to exploit opportunities to fuel discord. In addition to using information and cyber operations, they may consider physical disruptions.

However, officials emphasized that intelligence has not found evidence of collaboration between Russia, Iran, and China. While foreign interference might aim to disrupt Election Day and foster discontent, the integrity of the voting system is robust enough to prevent any actor from altering the outcome.

“Some foreign actors also have the capacity to incite protests and promote violence during the post-election period,” the ODNI official said. “Iran and Russia, in particular, might be willing to employ tactics that contribute to such unrest.”

A declassified memo released by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) after the briefing highlighted that foreign operatives are likely to amplify false claims of election irregularities after the vote. They could also target government or news websites with cyberattacks to create confusion and spread disinformation about ballot-counting, especially in close races.

The presidential race is expected to be tight, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday showing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican former President Donald Trump by 46% to 43%.

China, however, denied any intention to interfere in the election. “We hope that whoever wins will be committed to fostering sound and stable China-U.S. ties,” a Chinese embassy spokesperson said. Meanwhile, Russia’s embassy and Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Both countries have previously denied election-meddling allegations.

Use of AI in Disinformation Campaigns

Officials also noted that foreign influence actors are using social media and other online platforms to shape public opinion, either by denigrating certain candidates or supporting others. Some of these social media posts are likely generated using artificial intelligence, according to the ODNI official.

The official pointed to a recent example of disinformation spread on the platform X, allegedly by Russian influence actors, falsely accusing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz—Harris’ vice presidential running mate—of misconduct.

Intelligence agencies reviewed the content and found signs of manipulation consistent with Russian tactics. They concluded last weekend that the video was fabricated as part of an ongoing Russian effort to undermine the Democratic presidential ticket by spreading false claims against Harris and Walz.

U.S. intelligence has assessed for months that Russia prefers Trump to win the election. At the briefing, officials said they expect Russia to amplify protests if Harris wins, with the goal of undermining her presidency.

“Russia would prefer the former president to win and would take steps to more aggressively undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect (Harris),” the ODNI official stated.

The NIC also warned that Iranian operatives might publish content critical of Trump in the lead-up to the election.