Sask. braces for potential trade impacts with Trump's return

Following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, industry experts and a Saskatchewan farmer expressed concerns about potential economic repercussions for Canada if Trump enacts sweeping tariffs. Saskatchewan, with its economy heavily reliant on international trade, could face substantial challenges, particularly in sectors like agriculture, mining, steel, and energy, as the U.S. is one of its primary trading partners.

Rene de Moissac, a third-generation farmer from Biggar, Saskatchewan, explained that farmers are already dealing with high costs and inflation, and additional tariffs could worsen their financial outlook. "We have manipulations in the market already, let alone having tariffs or duties on some of our products. It deeply concerns me that this can be going on worldwide," he said. De Moissac pointed out that not only Saskatchewan farmers but also those across Canada and globally could feel the impact. "Anything beyond that is getting lower than the cost of production," he added, referring to current market conditions.

In 2023, Saskatchewan exported $6.7 billion worth of agri-food products to the U.S. alone. De Moissac emphasized that Canada must assert its importance in trade, citing exports like lumber, wheat, grains, beef, and energy products to the U.S. He urged Canadian politicians to be more proactive in highlighting the importance of Canada's contributions, particularly in energy, and called for more assertive action to protect Canadian interests.

The steel sector is also bracing for potential challenges. Catherine Cobden, president of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, expressed hope that the new U.S. administration would consider recent Canadian trade measures, such as the implementation of tariffs on Chinese steel products. "I think they're right in on par and in alignment with his vision," she said, noting that these changes may better position Canada’s steel industry for the future.

From an economic perspective, Bruce Anderson, a business professor at the University of Regina, warned that Saskatchewan could face disruptions in its longstanding trade relationships. He highlighted the significant costs and delays that could arise from restructuring supply chains, which would negatively impact government revenue and employment in the province. Lower exports could lead to reduced royalties from oil and mining, shrinking provincial tax revenues. "Reduced profitability due to tariffs means fewer corporate taxes paid, which could constrain public services and investments," Anderson explained.

The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies, particularly tariffs, is seen as a major concern. Anderson noted that businesses, especially large corporations, plan contracts and facilities years in advance. "I'm certain the tariffs and stuff really throws a wrench into their business plans and their ability to do it," he said, emphasizing the long-term impact these potential changes could have on Canadian industries.