Trudeau loses 2nd Liberal stronghold as Bloc wins Montreal byelection

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has faced another significant setback with the loss of a second Liberal stronghold, this time to the Bloc Québécois in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.

On Monday, voters in both the Montreal riding and Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona went to the polls. In Winnipeg, the NDP successfully defended its long-held seat after a competitive contest against the Conservatives.

Trudeau is already under pressure from within his party to step down as leader, following an unexpected defeat in Toronto—St. Paul’s to the Conservatives in a byelection this past June.

Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal supporter and strategist, described the recent defeat as “yet another nail in Justin Trudeau’s coffin.”

Although byelections typically hold limited importance on Parliament Hill, these votes were seen as indicators of the shifting political landscape in Canada.

“If Trudeau’s Liberals can’t hold this safe seat, it will spell even bigger trouble for the party’s prospects in Quebec and across Canada in a critical election year,” Perez commented before the final result was declared.

In Montreal, Bloc Québécois supporters celebrated their victory with such enthusiasm that the floor shook, with some draping themselves in Quebec flags.

The Bloc had been locked in a tight three-way contest with the Liberals and the NDP until the final poll was counted.

“We are here and we work hard because we believe in the interests of Quebec and we believe in independence,” stated Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé before the final tally was announced.

Early Tuesday, Elections Canada revealed that the Bloc had won the seat by just 248 votes over the Liberals, based on all 187 polls.

The Montreal seat became vacant after former justice minister David Lametti exited politics. Liberal ministers made several visits to the area as the party campaigned intensively to retain the seat it had held for years.

Bloc deputy House leader Christine Normandin noted that no one initially expected the Bloc to perform well in the traditionally Liberal stronghold.

“However the campaign unfolded, we could only win. We had nothing to lose,” she remarked before the outcome was known.

Normandin added, “Seeing tonight that it is a tight race is, in itself, a win for us. It shows that there is support for what the Bloc does and the issues we’re bringing to the House of Commons.”

The NDP also took encouragement from the close race. While not typically a major player in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, their candidate, Craig Sauvé, was a contender for first place throughout the night, competing with both the Liberals and the Bloc.

“If the NDP is competitive in Montreal, we’re going to win seats in Montreal, we’re going to have great candidates in Montreal, and Montrealers are going to see more NDP MPs at the next election,” Sauvé told supporters earlier in the evening.

Montreal resident Graham Juneau expressed disillusionment despite all the campaigning. He and many of his friends chose not to vote, citing “a lack of confidence in the political establishment in Canada.”

“There hasn’t been much excitement for any of the particular parties, at least among my peers,” Juneau said.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is positioning himself as the main progressive alternative to Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, aiming to surpass the Liberals.

In Winnipeg, Singh and his candidate, Leila Dance, successfully resisted an aggressive Conservative campaign.

Political observers were closely watching whether the Conservatives could attract traditional NDP voters with their focus on issues like labor and affordability.

The NDP won with 48.1% of the vote, though Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds increased his party’s share from 28% in the 2021 general election to 44% in this byelection.

With several polls yet to be counted, Reynolds acknowledged defeat and told his volunteers they should be proud of the Conservatives’ efforts in the campaign.

Singh had earlier taken a risk by signing a pact with Trudeau in 2022 to avoid an early election in exchange for advancing NDP priorities. While the deal led to policies such as a national dental care program and a future pharmacare bill, it hasn’t resulted in a boost for the NDP in national polls.

Just weeks ago, Singh withdrew from the pact, aiming to distinguish his party from the Liberals and position himself as the main challenger to Poilievre in the next election.