Trudeau set to face fretful caucus days after NDP-Liberal deal ends

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to meet with a tense and anxious Liberal caucus in British Columbia on Monday, as MPs await a clear strategy to address the party’s struggles, which have persisted for months.

Following the crushing defeat of a longtime Liberal stronghold in a Toronto byelection last June, many MPs privately and publicly called for a team meeting. However, Trudeau opted to delay gathering the caucus until fall.

Since then, the party's situation has worsened. The Liberals faced two major setbacks this week: the sudden withdrawal of the NDP from the agreement that had prevented an early election and the resignation of their national campaign director.

With two byelections approaching on Sept. 16 and a general election looming within the next year, several Liberal MPs—who have expressed concerns privately—are eager for a solid game plan from Trudeau and his advisers to secure their seats.

For more than a year, the Liberals have struggled in the polls while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have gained momentum, tapping into widespread concerns over inflation, the rising cost of living, and housing shortages.

Although Trudeau has not addressed his entire caucus yet, he has met with MPs in smaller groups throughout June and July and attended several regional caucus meetings ahead of the retreat in Nanaimo.

“We’re focused on delivering for Canadians,” Trudeau said during a Quebec Liberal caucus meeting last Thursday. He outlined several initiatives, including a national school food program, $10-a-day childcare, and national coverage for insulin and contraceptives, which were developed in partnership with the NDP. He emphasized that “these are things that matter for Canadians” and criticized the NDP for being “focused on politics” while the Liberals remain committed to “Canadians.”

New Brunswick MP Wayne Long, who has been outspoken in his criticism of Trudeau, believes the prime minister is no longer resonating with the public. Long was the only Liberal MP to openly call for Trudeau to resign after the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection defeat, though other MPs privately shared similar views.

Long reiterated his concerns at the Atlantic caucus retreat, saying, “I’m really worried the old ‘stay calm and carry on,’ which is effectively where we are, is not going to lead us to victory in the next election.” He added that if the party hopes to defeat Poilievre, “that campaign cannot be led by Justin Trudeau.”

Long, who does not intend to run in the next election, fears a Trudeau-led campaign could pave the way for a Poilievre government that would dismantle the prime minister’s nine-year legacy. He is among several Liberal MPs who have confirmed they will not attend the Nanaimo meeting.

However, Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor and a name frequently mentioned as a possible Trudeau successor, will be present. He is expected to speak to MPs about the economy and growth strategies.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s recent decision to withdraw from the supply and confidence deal has added pressure, raising the possibility of an election sooner than expected.

Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal strategist, acknowledged that the situation complicates any move to replace Trudeau, saying Singh “probably holds the keys” to when the next election will be called. This uncertainty may also bolster arguments for keeping Trudeau in place due to time constraints.

Despite the challenges, Long said that MPs who are planning to run again remain determined and ready to fight. He remarked, “They’re ready to go.”