Views of B.C. swing seats on election night

British Columbia is getting closer to discovering its next premier, with the results on October 19 likely depending on a few key ridings that could shift in a new direction.

Sanjay Jeram, senior lecturer and chair of Graduate Studies in Political Science at Simon Fraser University, noted that ridings like Coquitlam-Burke Mountain are currently in play, following NDP MLA Fin Donnelly's announcement in the spring that he would not seek re-election.

Jeram also pointed out that Vancouver-Point Grey, the riding of BC NDP Leader David Eby, is one to watch closely.

“Due to boundary changes, this seat comes to mind as interesting, even though Eby is favored to win,” Jeram said.

He added that some seats in Maple Ridge and Richmond could also switch sides this time around.

“What I expect is that some previous patterns will hold, with Conservatives remaining strong outside Metro Vancouver and the NDP maintaining strength within the region. However, the closely contested seats could ultimately decide this election due to how tight the popular vote is.”

Jeram emphasized that voter turnout could significantly impact the outcome.

“It’s not just a British Columbia phenomenon; it’s a national trend. There seems to be a malaise, and Conservatives are tapping into public discontent over issues like crime, affordability, and the economy—basic concerns that matter to voters.”

The BC NDP had been governing with a majority, but if they win, Jeram doesn’t believe they will return to Victoria in the same way.

“They have more to lose in this election,” he said.

While the NDP has regained momentum, Jeram noted that the Conservatives could present a challenge, especially if they manage to mobilize new voters or attract former BC United supporters.

“In several NDP-held ridings that Conservatives hope to flip, they’re likely counting on new voters energized by, even though they’re not saying it outright, Pierre Poilievre and the enthusiasm he has stirred among younger voters.”