What role will climate play in the election in New Brunswick?

Political scientists are noting that affordability and healthcare are the top concerns for both voters and parties in New Brunswick’s upcoming election, with the province’s fracking moratorium potentially being the central climate-related issue in the race.

New Brunswick hosts Canada’s largest oil refinery, owned by Irving Oil, which has long received support from the current premier, Blaine Higgs, a former Irving Oil executive. Both the Progressive Conservatives, led by Higgs, and the Liberals back the province’s nuclear energy sector.

Additionally, glyphosate spraying on Crown land, which benefits the forestry industry, was opposed by both the Liberals and Greens in the 2020 election.

Environmental groups argue that fracking and other ecological issues should take center stage, while also emphasizing the links between climate change and key voter concerns like housing, affordability, and healthcare. The election must be held by October 21, with the writ expected to drop on September 19.

Mount Allison University professor Mario Levesque suggests fracking is a relevant issue for voters, as the topic has been contentious in recent years.

Although Higgs has yet to release his party’s platform, he did discuss fracking at a campaign event in August, promising a two percent sales tax cut, which would cost the government $450 million annually.

He also described New Brunswick’s fracked gas as the “cleanest gas reserves in the world” and suggested it could help China transition away from coal.

Experts, however, warn that exporting fossil fuels to Asia could increase air pollution and hinder climate goals.

The fracking moratorium, in place for a decade, is under threat, with Higgs indicating a willingness to lift it, even without consent from First Nations.

The provincial government has stated that the moratorium will remain until there is a “social licence” and a “process in place to respect our obligations under the duty to consult with First Nations.”

First Nations groups in the province have strongly opposed fracking.

In response to Higgs' intentions, Green Party Leader David Coon introduced a bill to end fossil fuel development in New Brunswick, which was ultimately defeated.

While fracking hasn’t been explicitly highlighted by any party, it remains a key issue in the background of this election.

The New Brunswick Anti-Shale Gas Alliance has been running ads to remind voters of the moratorium and its importance in protecting drinking water.

Jim Emberger, a spokesperson for the alliance, recalls the intense protests that led to the moratorium, noting that a generation of younger voters may not remember those events.

He hopes the ads in Moncton and Saint John will encourage voters to connect fracking with health concerns, pointing out evidence linking fracking to groundwater contamination and health risks.

Levesque suggests that if Higgs avoids discussing fracking during the campaign, it may indicate that his party plans to move forward with it if re-elected.

He compares this to Higgs’ silence on rural hospitals during the 2018 campaign, which preceded his unsuccessful attempt to close six hospitals.

The Liberal Party has released its platform, prioritizing affordability and healthcare, with plans to open 30 healthcare clinics by 2028.

Levesque notes that the focus on economic issues may push climate concerns down the list for voters. Poll analyst Éric Grenier describes the election as a “toss-up,” with the Liberals holding a slight edge.

Moe Qureshi, director of climate research and policy at the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, emphasizes that voters do care about climate issues, but agrees that these concerns must be tied to broader topics like health and affordability.

He highlights how issues like public transportation, extreme weather, and energy costs are all connected to climate change.

Fracking and herbicide use, particularly glyphosate spraying on Crown land, remain major environmental concerns.

The election also takes place in the context of rising support for Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservatives, which Higgs appears to be aligning with by addressing controversial issues like changes to Policy 713, which the Canadian Civil Liberties Association says harms transgender and gender-diverse students.

However, political analyst Don Desserud cautions that voters may not equate Higgs with the change they see in Poilievre, viewing Higgs as part of an old guard that has failed to deliver meaningful improvements.

Desserud also points to internal conflicts within Higgs’ party, such as ministers being removed for voting against him on Policy 713.

University of New Brunswick political science professor J.P. Lewis links Higgs’ approach to climate issues to broader culture wars, noting that opposition to climate action fits within this stance.

Liberal leader Susan Holt, meanwhile, is still introducing herself to voters and distancing herself from both the federal government and Higgs.

It remains unclear if she will focus on climate issues during the campaign.

The province’s Green Party, led by David Coon, holds three seats, while the NDP currently has no seats.

Lewis compares Coon to federal Green leader Elizabeth May for his focus on both environmental and democratic issues.